China: Population Expected to Decline by 60 Million Over the Next Decade

Middle East News Network: The South China Morning Post reported that China’s population is expected to decline by 60 million people over the next ten years, which is roughly equivalent to the population of France.

According to the newspaper, a study conducted by Rhodium Group indicates that this demographic decline threatens the country’s economy.

China’s current population stands at 1.41 billion people, making it the second most populous country in the world after India, which has a population of 1.47 billion.

Analysts point out that this population decline will mainly affect the coastal provinces, which have contributed significantly to China’s economic growth over the past forty years. A shrinking population in these areas will directly impact consumption and productivity.

The main reason for this decline is the sharp drop in the birth rate. In 2025, only 7.92 million children were born, the lowest level ever recorded. Compared to 2024, the number of births dropped by 17 percent. In addition, the country’s population has been declining for the fourth consecutive year.

This trend is attributed to rising living costs and changing social attitudes among young people.

A similar trend is being observed globally. A major United Nations study found that millions of people around the world are unable to have children due to economic and social challenges. Among the most significant barriers to childbirth, 39 percent of participants cited financial difficulties.

Other reasons included job instability or lack of confidence in the future (21 percent), inability to afford suitable housing (19 percent), lack of a suitable partner (14 percent), health problems (12 percent), and lack of partner involvement in childcare (11 percent).

Pessimism about the future also discourages childbirth. For example, 14 percent of participants expressed fears related to political instability, wars, or pandemics, while another 9 percent were concerned about climate and environmental issues.

It is worth noting that China faced a severe demographic crisis in 2024, when its population declined by 1.39 million people.

According to experts, this demographic decline is partly the legacy of the one-child policy, which was in effect from 1979 to 2015, in addition to rapid urbanization. The situation has been worsened by economic factors, including the high costs of raising and educating children and economic instability.

Young couples are increasingly delaying starting families, fearing that having children could negatively affect their financial situation and career paths.

Another factor affecting the country’s demographic situation is population aging. By 2024, the number of people aged over 60 had reached around 22 percent of the population, or 310 million people. This figure is expected to rise to 400 million by 2035.

At the same time, the Chinese Academy of Sciences warns that the pension system may be depleted in the coming decades. Experts also note that the number of women of childbearing age (15–49 years) is expected to decline by more than two-thirds in the long term.

To address this issue, authorities are taking measures to encourage higher birth rates. In December 2024, universities were advised to include topics related to marriage and family in their curricula. However, experts believe that without broad reforms in social policies, these efforts will not produce tangible results.

Source: health.mail.ru